![]() Unfortunately, you can’t mothball workers. When tank production waned in the last decade, it proposed mothballing the nation’s only surviving tank production facility in Ohio. The Army insists that it has thoroughly assessed such impacts down to the second and third tiers of the rotorcraft industrial base, but it does not have a strong track record of thinking through how such outcomes might affect workers. Whatever the merits of the Sikorsky-Boeing protest may be, it can’t speak to the industrial-base fallout from the December award, because industrial considerations were not part of the selection criteria that resulted in Bell/Textron’s win. Job losses would likely extend to Sikorsky’s other major site in West Palm Beach, Florida. If Sikorsky wins, that will partially fill the financial abyss created by losing Black Hawk, but not to the extent that the company’s current 13,000 employees can all keep their jobs.Įither way, the outlook for jobs in Sikorsky’s home state of Connecticut would not be good-and that’s before we even get to the company’s 280+ suppliers in the state. If Bell wins, then it will dominate the future domestic rotorcraft sector. The armed recon contest pits Bell against Sikorsky. The Army is planning to award a second program for a next-generation armed recon helicopter in 2024 to replace the retired Kiowa scout, but that program will be much smaller than the Black Hawk replacement, and Boeing isn’t on either of the teams vying for that award. And if the Army doesn’t achieve greater clarity with regard to what it will do with Apache and Chinook through mid-century, then the job losses will extend beyond system integrators to the shrinking ranks of suppliers too.īoeing has repeatedly warned that without a robust upgrade program for the Chinook heavy lifter, suppliers providing the transmission, flight controls, cockpit and cabin structure could exit the sector. There may be far fewer tactical transports in Army’s future fleet.īeyond that, overseas allies have shown little enthusiasm for the novel performance features of tiltrotors, so Black Hawk’s successor probably won’t score anywhere near as many overseas sales with allies.īottom line: if the Army’s choice of a tiltrotor as its next tactical assault aircraft is sustained, there could be many fewer jobs in the future rotorcraft sector. ![]() However, Byron Callan of Capital Alpha Partners is probably right when he speculates that Black Hawk will not be replaced on a one-for-one basis. ![]() Of course, new jobs would be created at Bell and Black Hawk will remain in production until its successor is ready for prime time, around 2030. With the Army’s long-term plans for Apache and Chinook unclear, and Bell/Textron poised to displace Sikorsky’s Black Hawk, it is no exaggeration to say that much of the domestic rotorcraft industry is at risk in the aftermath of the Army’s December award. Meanwhile, the 4,300 workers at Boeing’s other rotorcraft plant in Mesa, Arizona are facing the end of upgrades to the Army’s Apache APA attack helicopter, a program that is scheduled to see its last increment of funding in 2025. Without the Osprey and Chinook upgrades, the Pennsylvania plant-biggest industrial employer in the lower Delaware Valley-would likely close. The 4,500 employees at its Pennsylvania plant near Philadelphia are, like Bell, facing an end to their share of the V-22 production program while the Army continues to signal ambivalence about upgrades to the plant’s Chinook heavy lifter. ![]() Sikorsky also is building a heavy lifter for the Marine Corps called King Stallion, but that program will only produce a couple hundred airframes-nothing like the scale of the Black Hawk program.Īs for Boeing Vertical Lift, it too faces big uncertainties in the near future. Sikorsky delivered its 5000th Black Hawk earlier this month, underscoring how central it is to the unit’s fortunes. That is especially true of Sikorsky, because the new Army rotorcraft was conceived to replace its ubiquitous Black Hawk tactical transport-the aircraft that Sikorsky President Paul Lemmo says “forged” the company. Sikorsky and Boeing are challenging the Army’s award to Bell, but if their protest does not prevail-and most protests don’t-they face an uncertain future. They teamed to offer an alternative to the Bell offering, which is essentially a refinement of the same tiltrotor technology used on the Osprey. For unsuccessful offerors Boeing and Lockheed/Sikorsky, though, it is a huge blow. ![]()
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